[1]崔铁军,李莎莎.少故障数据条件下SFEP最终事件发生概率分布确定方法[J].智能系统学报,2020,15(1):136-143.[doi:10.11992/tis.201911002]
 CUI Tiejun,LI Shasha.Determination method of target event occurrence probability in SFEP under the condition of less fault data[J].CAAI Transactions on Intelligent Systems,2020,15(1):136-143.[doi:10.11992/tis.201911002]
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少故障数据条件下SFEP最终事件发生概率分布确定方法(/HTML)
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《智能系统学报》[ISSN:1673-4785/CN:23-1538/TP]

卷:
第15卷
期数:
2020年1期
页码:
136-143
栏目:
学术论文—人工智能基础
出版日期:
2020-01-01

文章信息/Info

Title:
Determination method of target event occurrence probability in SFEP under the condition of less fault data
作者:
崔铁军12 李莎莎3
1. 辽宁工程技术大学, 安全科学与工程学院, 辽宁 阜新 123000;
2. 大连交通大学 辽宁省隧道与地下结构工程技术研究中心, 辽宁 大连 116028;
3. 辽宁工程技术大学 工商管理学院, 辽宁 葫芦岛 125105
Author(s):
CUI Tiejun12 LI Shasha3
1. College of Safety Science and Engineering, Liaoning Technical University, Fuxin 123000, China;
2. Tunnel & Underground Structure Engineering Center of Liaoning, Dalian Jiaotong University, Dalian 116028 China;
3. School of Business Administration
关键词:
安全系统工程空间故障网络系统故障演化过程少故障数据信息扩散最终事件发生概率
Keywords:
safety system engineeringspace fault networksystem fault evolution processless fault datainformation diffusiontarget event occurrence probability
分类号:
TP18;X91
DOI:
10.11992/tis.201911002
摘要:
为了在获得少故障数据条件下得到适合的系统故障演化过程(system fault evolution process,SFEP)中最终事件发生概率分布,提出一种考虑信息扩散且数据较少情况下的最终事件发生概率分布计算方法。该方法利用信息扩散原理以事件发生时因素为中心在研究区域内形成正态分布。同一事件的多次发生在研究区域中取最大值形成该事件发生概率分布,从而得到SFEP中边缘事件发生概率分布。将SFN中事件关系表示为关系组从而叠加关系,得到最终事件发生概率分布解析式计算分布。研究表明,所得结果与原有精确结果具有较高的符合性,但所需故障数据则少得多。可借助该方法在少故障数据条件下研究SFEP最终事件发生特征。
Abstract:
To get suitable probability distribution of the target event in the system fault evolution process (SFEP) with less fault data, we propose a calculation method of the probability distribution of the target event occurrence considering the information diffusion and less data. This method uses the information diffusion principle to form a normal distribution in the study area with the factors at the event occurrence as the center. Take the maximum value for many times of occurrence of the same event in the study area, forming the probability distribution of the event occurrence. Thereby, the probability distribution of the edge event occurrence in the SFEP is obtained. The event relationships in SFN are expressed as relationship set and then the relationships are superposed, and the analytic formula of probability distribution of target event occurrence is obtained. The research shows that the results are in good agreement with the original accurate results with much less fault data. This method can be used to study the target event occurrence characteristics of SFEP under the condition of less fault data.

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相似文献/References:

[1]崔铁军,汪培庄.空间故障树与因素空间融合的智能可靠性分析方法[J].智能系统学报,2019,14(05):853.[doi:10.11992/tis.201807022]
 CUI Tiejun,WANG Peizhuang.Intelligent reliability analysis method based on space fault tree and factor space[J].CAAI Transactions on Intelligent Systems,2019,14(1):853.[doi:10.11992/tis.201807022]

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2019-11-06。
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(51704141);国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC1503102);国家自然科学基金委主任基金项目(61350003)
作者简介:崔铁军,副教授,博士,主要研究方向为系统可靠性及力学系统稳定性,提出和建立了空间故障树理论及空间故障网络理论。取得发明专利19项,发表学术论文100余篇,出版学术专著4部; 李莎莎,讲师,博士,主要研究方向为安全管理及其智能分析。取得发明专利5项,发表学术论文10余篇,出版学术专著2部
通讯作者:崔铁军.E-mail:ctj.159@163.com
更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01