[1]危 辉,白 宇.一种基于MAS和GIS平台的城市人口变迁模拟仿真方法[J].智能系统学报,2009,4(01):44-58.
 WEI Hui,BAI Yu.Simulation of urban population growth with a multiagent system and GIS platform[J].CAAI Transactions on Intelligent Systems,2009,4(01):44-58.





Simulation of urban population growth with a multiagent system and GIS platform
危 辉12白 宇12
WEI Hui12BAI Yu12
1.Laboratory of Algorithm for Cognitive Model of Department of Computer Science, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433, China; 2.Key Laboratory of Wave Scattering and Remote Sensing Information (MOE), Fudan University, Shanghai 200433, China
system simulationmulti-agent systemurban modeling
中国的城市化进程非常迅速,人口增长和迁移是重要特征之一.以地理信息系统、Multi-agent系统和随机过程为基础,建立一个研究人口增长的仿真模型.首先,利用GIS建立一个数字环境,用效能函数的概念在GIS中表示各类资源的效能.其次,详细阐述了一个Multi-agent 系统设计和实现,重点是用agent代表某个地块及其属性和行为设计.由于发展的不确定性,设计了一个基于随机过程的行为模型,这也和agent宏观水平上的特性一致.最后,以上海市浦东新区为对象,进行了实验模拟和分析.结果表明这个基于Multi-agent系统和GIS的人口变迁仿真模型,具有模块性和可扩展性方面的优势,可应用到其他的城市规划研究中去.
The Chinese economy grew rapidly for more than 20 years, promoting rapid urbanization. New cities emerged and great changes took place in old cities. Population changes complicated city planning, infrastructure construction, housing, and environmental preservation. A model simulating this population transformation was built merging methods from Geographical Information Systems, Multiagent Systems and Stochastic Processes. First an efficiency function was proposed to represent the effectiveness of a resource within the GIS. Second, a multiagent system was designed and implemented, with agents representing ground segments and profits acquired after that. Third, static attributes and dynamic behaviors of agents were discussed. To model the uncertainty of urban development better, a behavioral mode was designed based on a stochastic process, consistent with macrolevel characteristics of the agent. The combined system and its implementation in a computer were then discussed. Finally experiments, using data from Pudong District of Shanghai, were run and analyzed. This urban evolution model can be adapted to more types of research and owes its good performance to modularity and scalability. 


[1]FORRESTER J W. Urban dynamics[M]. Cambridge,USA: MIT Press, 1969.
[2]WEGENER M. SPIEKERMANN K. The potential of microsimulation for urban modeling[C]//Proceedings of the International Workshop on Application of Computers in Urban Planning. Kobe University, Kobe, Japan, 1997: 129-143.
[3]SKLAR F H, COSTANZA R. The development of dynamic spatial models for landscape ecology: A review and prognosis[M]// TUNER M. G, GARDNER R H. Quantitative methods in landscape ecology.New York: Springer-Verlag, 1991: 239-288.
[4]GILBERT N, TROITZSCH K G. Simulation for the social scientist[M]. London, UK: Open University Press, 1999.
[5]KAIMOWITZ D, ANGELSEN A. Economic models of tropical deforestation: A review[M]. Jakarta, Indonesia: Center for International Forestry Research, 1998.
[6]HOWITT R E. Positive mathematical programming[J]. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 1995, 77(2): 329-342.
[7]WEINBERG M, KLING C L, WILEN J E. Water markets and water quality[J]. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 1993, 75(2): 278-291.
[8]CROMLEY R G, HANINK D M. Coupling landuse allocation models with raster GIS[J]. Journal of Geographic Systems, 1999, 1(3): 137-153.
[9]LONGLEY P, HIGGS G, MARTIN D. The predictive use of GIS to model property valuations[J]. International Journal of Geographical Information Systems, 1994, 8(2): 217-235.
[10]BAKER W L. A review of models in landscape change[J]. Landscape Ecology, 1989, 2(2): 111-133.
[11]MERTENS B, LAMBIN E F. Spatial modeling of deforestation in Southern Cameroon[J]. Applied Geography, 1997, 17(2): 143-162.
[12]GEOGHEGAN J, PRITCHARD L J, OGNEVAHIMMEBLBERGER Y, et al.“Socializing the pixel” and “pixelizing the social” in landuse/cover change[M]// Liverman D, Moran E F, Rindfuss R R, et al. People and pixels. Washington, DC, USA: National Research Council, 1998:51-69.
[13]LUDEKE A K, MAGGIO R C, REID L M. An analysis of anthropogenic deforestation using logistic regression and GIS[J]. Journal of Environmental Management, 1990, 31: 247-259.
[14]LEGGETT C G, BOCKSTAEL N E. Evidence of the effects of water quality on residential land prices[J]. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 2000, 39: 121-144.
[15]BALLING R J, TABER J T, BROWN M, et al. Multiobjective urban planning using a genetic algorithm[J]. ASCE Journal of Urban Planning and Development, 1999, 125(2): 86-99.
[16]MANN S, BENWELL G. The integration of ecological, neural, and spatial modeling for monitoring and prediction for semiarid landscapes[J]. Computers and Geosciences, 1996, 22(9): 1003-1012.
[17]BATTY M, LANGLER P A. The morphology of urban land use[J]. Environment and Planning B, 1986, 15: 461-488.
[18]BATTY M. Urban modeling in computergraphic and geographic information system environment [J]. Environment and Planning B, 1992, 19: 663-688
[19]BATTY M, XIE Y. From cells to cities[J]. Environment and Planning B, 1994, 21: 31-48.
[20]TOBLER W R. A computer movie simulating urban growth in the detroit region[J]. EconomicGeography, 1970, 46: 234-240.
[21]COUCLELIS H. Cellular worlds: A framework for modeling micromacro dynamics[J]. Environment and Planning A, 1985, 17: 585-596.
[22]COUCLELIS H. Of mice and men: What rodent population can teach us about complex spatial dynamics[J]. Environment and Planning A, 1988, 20: 99-109.
[23]COUCLELIS H. Macrostructure and microbehavior in a metropolitan area[J]. Environment and Planning B, 1989, 16: 141-154.
[24]PHIPPS M, LANGLOIS A. Spatial dynamics, cellular automata, and parallel processing computers[J]. Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, 1997, 24: 193-204.
[25]BENATI S. A cellular automaton for the simulation of competitive location[J]. Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design,1997,24: 205-218.
[26]WHITE R, ENGELEN G. Cellular automata and fractal urban form: A cellular modeling approach to the evolution of urban landuse patterns[J]. Environment and Planning A, 1993, 25: 1175-1199.
[27]WHITE R, ENGELEN G.Cellular automata as the basis of integrated dynamic regional modeling[J]. Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, 1997, 24: 235-246.
[28]BATTY M, JIANG Bin. Multiagent simulation:New approaches to exploring spacetime dynamics within GIS[C]// Annual Meeting of GISRUK’99(Geographical Information Systems ResearchUK). University of Southampton, Southampton, UK, 1999: 14-16.
[29]JIANG Bin. Agentbased approach to modeling environmental and urban system within GIS[C]//Proceedings of 9th International Symposium on Spatial Data Handling. Beijing, 2000:10-12.
[30]BENENSON I. Multiagent simulations of residential dynamics in the city[J]. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, 1998, 22(1): 25-42.
[31]BENENSON I, OMER I, PORTUGALI J. An agentbased model of residential mobility in the TelAviv metropolitan area[C]// The Ⅳ International Conference on GeoComputation. Fredericksburg, VA, USA, 1999: 92-99.
[32]PENG Chong, CHENG Jianquan. Using multiagent system for residential expansion models—A case study of hongshan district, Wuhan City[J]. Chinese Geographical Science, 2007, 17(3): 210-215.
[33]彭 翀, 杜宁睿, 刘 云. 大城市居住用地扩展的多主体模型研究[J]. 武汉大学学报: 信息科学版, 2007, 32(6): 548-551.
 PENG Chong, DU Ningrui, LIU Yun, Understanding residential expansion in big cities using MAS/RE[J]. Geomatics and Information Science of Wuhan University, 2007, 32(6): 548-551.
[34]陈 林, 程登发, 陆庆光, 等. 一种基于多Agent和GIS的麦蚜种群动态模拟方法研究初报[J]. 植物保护, 2006, 32(6): 33-38.
CHEN Lin, CHENG Dengfa, LU Qingguang, et al. Development of largescale spatiotemporal dynamic model of wheat aphid population based on the multiagent system and geographic information system[J]. Plant Protection, 2006, 32(6): 33-38.
[35]侯玉文, 王海宾, 夏 鹏, 等, 基于MAS/GIS技术的车辆指挥中心及其实现[J]. 科学技术与工程, 2006, 6(2):151-153.
 HOU Yuwen, WANG Haibin, XIA Peng,et al. Design and implementation of traffic’s chain of command based on MAS/GIS[J]. Science Technology and Engineering, 2006, 6(2): 151-153.
[36]陈 曦. 一种GIS环境下基于MAS的动态路径规划方法[J]. 长沙交通学院学报, 2002, 18(1): 22-25.
 CHEN Xi, Dynamic route planning method based on MAS in GIS environment[J]. Journal of Changsha Communications University, 2002, 18(1): 22-25.
[37]范鹏飞, 赵 勇. 基于Multiagent的城市交通事故救援系统[J]. 铁路计算机应用, 2004, 13(6): 1-3.
 FAN Pengfei, ZHAO Yong. Urban traffic accident rescue system based on multiagent technique[J]. Railway Computer Application, 2004, 13(6): 1-3.
[38]ZHANG Renjun, WANG Qi, ZHOU Qigang. Microsimulation of tourists’ behaviors in nature heritage resort: A case study on mount emei scenic area[C]//The Second Workshop on Digital Media and Its Application in Museum & Heritage. Chongqing, China, 2007: 118-122.
[39]URBANI D, DELHOM M. Water management using a new hybrid multiagents systemgeographic information system decision support system framework[C]//First International Symposium on Environment Identities and Mediterranean Area (ISEIMA’06). CorteAjaccio, France, 2006: 314-319.
[40]MA R, WAN B, HU Q, et al. A multiagent system using in spatial information sharing on Webbased GIS[C]//Proceedings of 2005 IEEE International Conference on Natural Language Processing and Knowledge Engineering. Wuhan, China, 2005: 466-471.
[41]LI Guangru, SUN Zhi, HU Jingfeng. The analysis and design of architecture model and cooperative algorithms among MAS of waterborne GIS[C]//The Sixth World Congress on Intelligent Control and Automation(WCICA 2006). Dalian, China, 2006:8692-8696.
[42]〖ZK(〗YANG Jusong, MONTAKHAB M, DAVIES T S, et al. Fault diagnosis of power distribution systems using a multiagent approach[C]//The 39th International Universities Power Engineering Conference (UPEC 2004). Bristol, UK, 2004: 448-452.


危 辉,男,1971年生,教授,博士,中国人工智能学会人工智能基础专业委员会委员、中国系统仿真学会生命系统建模仿真专业委员会委员、上海市计算机学会计算机理论与人工智能专委会委员、上海市自动化学会理事、复旦大学波散射和遥感中心教育部重点实验室图像处理与GIS研究室主任.主要研究方向为人工智能研究.主持多项国家自然科学基金、973子课题、国防973专题课题、航天支撑计划课题、中国科学院智能信息处理重点实验室开放基金课题,参加多项973前期专项课题、国家自然科学基金委员会重大研究计划面上项目等.发表学术论文40余篇.
白 宇,男,1980年生,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为人工智能研究.
更新日期/Last Update: 2009-03-24