[1]冯 珊,郭四海,等.武器装备虚拟采办技术风险综合评估[J].智能系统学报,2008,3(05):384-392.
 FENG Shan,GUO Si-hai,ZHOU Kai-bo,et al.A comprehensive means for evaluating techn ical r isk in the simulation based acquisition model for weapon systems[J].CAAI Transactions on Intelligent Systems,2008,3(05):384-392.
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《智能系统学报》[ISSN:1673-4785/CN:23-1538/TP]

卷:
第3卷
期数:
2008年05期
页码:
384-392
栏目:
出版日期:
2008-10-25

文章信息/Info

Title:
A comprehensive means for evaluating techn ical r isk in the simulation based acquisition model for weapon systems
文章编号:
1673-4785 (2008) 05-0384-09
作者:
冯 珊1 郭四海1 2 周凯波1
1. 华中科技大学控制科学与工程系,湖北武汉430074;
 2. 武汉理工大学自动化学院,湖北武汉430070
Author(s):
FENG Shan1 GUO Si-hai1 2 ZHOU Kai-bo1
1. Institute of Systems Engineering, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, China;
2. School of Automa2 tion, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430074, China
关键词:
虚拟采办技术风险定性定量综合集成云模型
Keywords:
simulation based acquisition technical risk qualitative and quantitative meta-synthesis cloud model
分类号:
TP391
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
技术风险是武器装备虚拟采办全寿命周期过程中的根源性风险,是导致费用风险、进度风险和性能风险的主要因素. 针对武器装备采办过程中技术风险的非结构特性和难以量化的问题,在阐述了武器装备虚拟采办、技术风险、定性定量综合集成等概念的基础上,提出了一种定性定量综合集成的技术风险评估模型,并给出了详细的评估过程和重要步骤. 最后通过防空导弹技术风险评估进行实例分析,表明该模型在实际运用中是有效的,具有实际应用价值.
Abstract:
When using simulation2based acquisition ( SBA) , technical risk is the fundamental risk in the lifecycle of the p rocess, particularly forweapon systems. Technical risk is a major factor leading to cost, time and effective2 ness risks. Because of the non2structural features of SBA, it is difficult to derive quantitative measurements of tech2 nical risk in the lifecycles ofweapon systems SBA. To resolve this, the concep ts ofweapon system SBA were ana2 lyzed, including technical risk and comp rehensive integration, then a qualitative and quantitative model for techni2 cal risk evaluation was developed. And evaluation p rocedures and a sequence of step swere established. Finally, to clarify the feasibility and effectiveness of the evaluation model, technical risk was evaluated for an air defense mis2 sile system.

参考文献/References:

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相似文献/References:

[1]冯 珊,郭四海.面向虚拟采办的智能决策支持系统概念框架[J].智能系统学报,2008,3(03):201.
 FENG Shan,GUO Si-hai,A conceptual framework for the SBA-oriented intelligent decision support system[J].CAAI Transactions on Intelligent Systems,2008,3(05):201.
[2]冯 珊,郭四海.采办协同工程中的不确定多属性决策技术[J].智能系统学报,2010,5(04):283.
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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期: 2008-07-17.
基金项目:国家自然科学基金重大资助项目(79990580) ;“十一五” 国家部委预研资助项目(4130400501) ;国家部委预研重点基金资助项目(40A04050707) .
作者简介:   
冯 珊,女, 1935年生,教授,博士生导师. 主要研究方向为复杂系统建模与仿真,人工智能与计算智能的工程应用及多Agent系统等. 承担国家级自然科学基金及国防预研基金重点科研项目并多次获国家及省部级科技进步奖. 在国内外刊物上发表学术论文160 余篇,其中有66篇被SCI、EI、ISTP及IN2 SPEC等全文收录.
郭四海,男, 1976 年生,博士研究生,主要研究方向为建模与仿真、人工智能技术及虚拟采办决策支持系统等.
周凯波,男, 1972 年生,副教授,主要研究方向为智能化集成系统. 在国内外刊物上发表学术论文20余篇.
通信作者:冯 珊. E-mail: sfeng@mail. hust. edu. cn.
更新日期/Last Update: 2009-05-18