[1]CUI Tiejun,LI Shasha.Determination method of target event occurrence probability in SFEP under the condition of less fault data[J].CAAI Transactions on Intelligent Systems,2020,15(1):136-143.[doi:10.11992/tis.201911002]
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Determination method of target event occurrence probability in SFEP under the condition of less fault data
CAAI Transactions on Intelligent Systems[ISSN 1673-4785/CN 23-1538/TP] Volume:
15
Number of periods:
2020 1
Page number:
136-143
Column:
学术论文—人工智能基础
Public date:
2020-01-05
- Title:
- Determination method of target event occurrence probability in SFEP under the condition of less fault data
- Keywords:
- safety system engineering; space fault network; system fault evolution process; less fault data; information diffusion; target event occurrence probability
- CLC:
- TP18;X91
- DOI:
- 10.11992/tis.201911002
- Abstract:
- To get suitable probability distribution of the target event in the system fault evolution process (SFEP) with less fault data, we propose a calculation method of the probability distribution of the target event occurrence considering the information diffusion and less data. This method uses the information diffusion principle to form a normal distribution in the study area with the factors at the event occurrence as the center. Take the maximum value for many times of occurrence of the same event in the study area, forming the probability distribution of the event occurrence. Thereby, the probability distribution of the edge event occurrence in the SFEP is obtained. The event relationships in SFN are expressed as relationship set and then the relationships are superposed, and the analytic formula of probability distribution of target event occurrence is obtained. The research shows that the results are in good agreement with the original accurate results with much less fault data. This method can be used to study the target event occurrence characteristics of SFEP under the condition of less fault data.
- References:
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1900-01-01