基于Logit模型的私家车出行影响因素分析

PDF下载HTML

Title:

Research on the influence factors of private cars travel behavior based on the logit model

作者:

王志建, 王力, 刘小明

北方工业大学 城市道路交通智能控制技术北京市重点实验室, 北京 100144

Author(s):

WANG Zhijian, WANG Li, LIU Xiaoming

Key Lab of Urban Intelligent Traffic Control Technology, North China University of Technology, Beijing 100144, China

关键词:

交通运输工程; 动态交通信息; 交通出行; Logit模型; 行为分析

Keywords:

traffic and transportation engineering; dynamic traffic information; traffic trip; Logit model; action analysis

分类号:

TP18

DOI:

10.3969/j.issn.1673-4785.201310014

摘要:

文章旨在分析影响人们出行需求及行为的因素, 并寻找其内在的规律性。在进行大量数据调查及分析的基础上, 通过SPSS软件运用Logistic回归模型分析得出相关影响因素, 并对相关影响因素进行分析, 得出动态交通信息服务在一定程度上能够决定私家车出行路线选择, 交通信息发布的实时性和准确性有待进一步提高, 而且出行者更不愿意遇到交通事故或交通拥堵。通过分析动态交通信息背景下出行者交通出行行为的变化趋势, 可以更好的缓解北京的交通拥堵情况。

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to analyze what factors were influencing people’s travel demand and behavior, and find its inherent regularity. Based on a large amount of data investigations and analyses, and using the SPSS software and the Logistic Regression model, the related factors influencing traveler behavior are derived and analyzed. It has been concluded that the dynamic traffic information service decides the choice of the private car travel route to a certain extent, the accuracy and real-time performance of released traffic information need to be further improved, and travelers are more reluctant to encounter a traffic accident or traffic jams. Through analysis of how to more effectively change travelers’ behavior in the background of dynamic traffic information, we can better alleviate traffic congestion in Beijing.